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Invitation
The National Centre for Econometric Research (NCER) was pleased to host a seminar by Professor Kenneth F. Wallis from the University of Warwick on Wednesday 17 September. Professor Wallis's seminar was entitled, "Inflation forecasting: points and probabilities".
The notes and slides from the seminar are now available: Notes & References and Seminar Slides.
Kenneth F. Wallis
Kenneth F. Wallis is Emeritus Professor of Econometrics at the University of Warwick. He was educated at Manchester University and Stanford University. He held the Chair of Econometrics at Warwick from 1977 to 2001; previously he taught at the London School of Economics. Elected a Fellow of the Econometric Society in 1975, he served as Co-Editor of its journal, Econometrica, from 1977 to 1983, and as Program Co-Chair of its Seventh World Congress, held in Tokyo in 1995. He is the author of two econometrics textbooks and many research articles in the areas of macroeconometric modelling, statistical time series analysis, and the interface between them. He was Director of the ESRC Macroeconomic Modelling Bureau, a unique model comparison project established at Warwick by the Economic and Social Research Council, throughout its existence (1983-99). He is a Fellow of the British Academy and the International Institute of Forecasters, and was awarded an honorary doctorate by the University of Groningen in 1999.
Seminar Abstract
Many central banks around the world now operate a monetary policy regime of inflation targeting. Since it takes time for policy changes to affect inflation this is, in effect, a policy of inflation forecast targeting. An emphasis on accountability and transparency is also a feature of such policy regimes, which has led central banks to publish their forecasts, either as point forecasts or as probability density forecasts. The latter represent a complete description of the uncertainty associated with any forecast for the future. Since expectations of future inflation affect current economic decision-making and reflect the credibility of monetary policy, central banks also carry out regular surveys of outside forecasters, asking for their point forecasts of inflation and, in some cases, their density forecasts. This lecture describes some recent developments in inflation forecasting and forecast surveys by central banks, and reports some interesting findings from recent research on the individual responses to one such survey. It is hoped that the lecture will encourage similar developments in Australia.
Enquiries
For further details please contact the Project Officer:
Angela Fletcher
Queensland University of Technology
Email: a.fletcher@qut.edu.au
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